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Oscar Predictions 2018

I am a movie fan — pure and simple. I have even been known to take movie vacations, where I catch up on movies and see one every day. One of my favorite things is predicting who will win at the Academy Awards. It is not just about whether a performance was better than others, but you have to factor in such things as have they won before, are they or the movie too popular, have they been overlooked before, and so on. This is one of the most open fields in years. Here are my picks for the Top Six Awards.

oscars_shorts_2016-1280x600Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet “Call Me by Your Name”, Daniel Day-Lewis “Phantom Thread”, Daniel Kaluuya “Get Out”, Gary Oldman “Darkest Hour”, Denzel Washington “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” It’s newcomers versus veterans in this category. Denzel and Day-Lewis have both won before. Chalamet is nominated for his first starring role, ditto for Kaluuya. But is is Oldman who is getting all the early awards buzz, with his total transformation into Winston Churchhill in “Darkest Hour”. Final pick: Gary Oldman

Best Actress (Sally Hawkins “The Shape of Water.” Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Margot Robbie “I, Tonya,” Saoirse Ronan “Lady Bird,” Meryl Streep “The Post”) Meryl Streep has won 3 times before, so she is out. Cases could be made for the rest of the ladies too. Margot Robbie was incredible with her performance in “I, Tonya” and Sally Hawkins stile your heart in “The Shape of Water.” But McDormand looks to be on her way to her 2nd win. Final pick: Frances McDormand

Best Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe “The Florida Project,” Woody Harrelson “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Richard Jenkins “The Shape of Water,” Christopher Plummer “All the Money in the World,” Sam Rockwell “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) Tough category! Plummer has won before, and Harrelson and Dafoe have been nominated but never won. It is Rockwell who is getting all the pre-Oscar buzz and awards. But with a backlash building against the movie and his character, I am thinking his buzz is running out. Plus Harrelson and Rockwell will cancel each other out. Jenkins may get it and ride a wave of wins for “The Shape of Water.” Final pick: Richard Jenkins

Best Supporting Actress (Mary J. Blige “Mudbound,” Allison Janney “I, Tonya,” Lesley Manville “Phantom Thread,” Laurie Metcalf “Lady Bird,” Octavia Spencer “The Shape of Water”) Blige is celebrating her first nomination. Spencer has won before, so she is out. Not much buzz on Manville. It is between the 2 seasoned actresses playing mothers— Metcalf and Janney. Janney has the smaller part, and it is a bit cartoony. So I am giving the advantage to Metcalf. Final pick: Laurie Metcalf

Best Director (Christopher Nolan “Dunkirk,” Jordan Peele “Get Out,” Greta Gerwig “Lady Bird,” Paul Thomas Anderson “Phantom Thread,” Guillermo del Toro “The Shape of Water”) Paul Thomas Anderson is the only previous nominee for best director — but it is not his year. Cases could be made for actors turned directors Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig. But I think it is going to be Del Toro for guiding “The Shape of Water.” Final choice: Guillermo del Toro

Best Picture (Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri ) The best picture winner always has some best actor nominees. For that reason, it is easy to drop “Dunkirk.” But then you start counting how many great acting roles in a movie, and after you do that it comes down to 2 movies both of which have at least 5 good roles: “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Yes, Three Billboards is more of the moment — with its frustrations and injustices. It is an angry movie for sure. But there is a backlash building against it. Del Toro gave us as interspecies romance-thriller, and give voice to those that don’t have any. It is a beautifully filmed modern fairy tale. I am picking “The Shape of Water” to win the night. Final choice: The Shape of Water

Those are my picks. If you think differently, then please sound off in the comments. And if you win big in an Oscar pool, please let me know too.

KiltManinSoCal is a Los Angeles-based writer and designer. Be sure to check out the latest T-Shirts for sale here, including Marriage Equality and Real Men Wear Kilts lines. They make great gifts for friends, family and loved ones.

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Oscar Predictions 2017

 

I am a movie fan — pure and simple. I have even been known to take movie vacations, where I catch up on movies and see one every day. One of my favorite things is predicting who will win at the Academy Awards. It is not just about whether a performance was better than others, but you have to factor in such things as have they won before, are they or the movie too popular, have they been overlooked before, and so on. This is one of the most open fields in years. Here are my picks for the Top Six Awards.8035

Best Actor (Casey Affleck “Manchester by the Sea,” Andrew Garfield “Hacksaw Ridge,” Ryan Gosling “La La Land,” Viggo Mortensen “Captain Fantastic,” Denzel Washington “Fences”) You have one previous nominee (Viggo Mortensen) and one 2-time winner (Denzel Washington). The rest are first-time nominees. Viggo’s movie was not so well seen. “La La Land” may be seen as too light for some. That leaves Casey, Denzel and Andrew. Casey Affleck has the momentum — he is coming into his own. But then again, Denzel is a possibility too. Final choice: Casey Affleck

Best Actress (Isabelle Huppert “Elle,” Ruth Negga “Loving,” Natalie Portman “Jackie,” Emma Stone “La La Land,” Meryl Streep “Florence Foster Jenkins”) You have 2 former Oscar winners: Portman and Streep. Streep is out, she will not win a 4th time. I found “Elle” a bit of a Lifetime movie w/ more sex. Plus it in French. That leaves Negga and Stone. Stone could ride the momentum with “La La Land” and win. Plus, they like ingénues in this category. But Portman is a formidable competitor. Final choice: Emma Stone

Best Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali “Moonlight,” Jeff Bridges “Hell or High Water,” Lucas Hedges “Manchester by the Sea,” Dev Patel “Lion,” Michael Shannon “Nocturnal Animals”) Only 1 previous winner: Jeff Bridges. Ali has made quite an impression with a small role in an independent film. This is a tough category. Hedges is young, and will have another chance. Shannon has been nominated before, but not won. Final Choice: Mahershala Ali

Best Supporting Actress (Viola Davis “Fences,” Naomie Harris “Moonlight,” Nicole Kidman “Lion,” Octavia Spencer “Hidden Figures,” Michelle Williams “Manchester by the Sea”) You have previous winners here: Nicole Kidman and Octavia Spencer. Michelle Williams role is pretty small. I think it is between Viola and Naomie. Viola is higher profile, having lost before when she was supposedly a sure thing for “The Help.” Plus she is on a hit TV show too. Final choice: Viola Davis

Best Director (Damien Chazelle “La La Land,” Mel Gibson “Hacksaw Ridge,” Barry Jenkins “Moonlight,” Kenneth Lonergan “Manchester by the Sea,” Denis Villeneuve “Arrival”) One previous Oscar winner: Mel Gibson. Kenneth has been nominated before but for writing. For me, it is between Kenneth Lonergan and Damien Chazelle. I am picking Chazelle: he’s only had 2 features and both have been critical and commercial hits. Plus extra pointing for bringing the modern musical back. I am sure a lot of actors can’t wait to work for him. Final choice: Damien Chazelle

Best Picture (Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight) What an interesting batch of films! I picked “Hell or High Water” as my personal favorite from last year. Sci-fi doesn’t tend to play well here, so “Arrival” is out. “Fences” is good, but it felt like a filmed play, and it was. “Lion” moved me to tears. “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” are depressing, but well done. “Hacksaw Ridge” is lucky just to be nominated. “Hidden Figures” is rising at the right time, and it just won the Screen Actor’s Guild Award for Best Ensemble. I think it is between “Hidden Figures” and “La La Land.” We need a movie we can all rally behind. Final choice: La La Land

Those are my picks. If you think differently, then please sound off in the comments. And if you win big in an Oscar pool, please let me know too.

KiltManinSoCal is a Los Angeles-based writer and designer. Be sure to check out the latest T-Shirts for sale here, including Marriage Equality and Real Men Wear Kilts lines. They make great gifts for friends, family and loved ones.

 

 

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