I am a movie fan — pure and simple. I have even been known to take movie vacations, where I catch up on movies and see one every day. One of my favorite things is predicting who will win at the Academy Awards. It is not just about whether a performance was better than others, but you have to factor in such things as have they won before, are they or the movie too popular, have they been overlooked before, and so on. This is one of the most open fields in years. Here are my picks for the Top Six Awards.
Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet “Call Me by Your Name”, Daniel Day-Lewis “Phantom Thread”, Daniel Kaluuya “Get Out”, Gary Oldman “Darkest Hour”, Denzel Washington “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” It’s newcomers versus veterans in this category. Denzel and Day-Lewis have both won before. Chalamet is nominated for his first starring role, ditto for Kaluuya. But is is Oldman who is getting all the early awards buzz, with his total transformation into Winston Churchhill in “Darkest Hour”. Final pick: Gary Oldman
Best Actress (Sally Hawkins “The Shape of Water.” Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Margot Robbie “I, Tonya,” Saoirse Ronan “Lady Bird,” Meryl Streep “The Post”) Meryl Streep has won 3 times before, so she is out. Cases could be made for the rest of the ladies too. Margot Robbie was incredible with her performance in “I, Tonya” and Sally Hawkins stile your heart in “The Shape of Water.” But McDormand looks to be on her way to her 2nd win. Final pick: Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe “The Florida Project,” Woody Harrelson “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Richard Jenkins “The Shape of Water,” Christopher Plummer “All the Money in the World,” Sam Rockwell “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) Tough category! Plummer has won before, and Harrelson and Dafoe have been nominated but never won. It is Rockwell who is getting all the pre-Oscar buzz and awards. But with a backlash building against the movie and his character, I am thinking his buzz is running out. Plus Harrelson and Rockwell will cancel each other out. Jenkins may get it and ride a wave of wins for “The Shape of Water.” Final pick: Richard Jenkins
Best Supporting Actress (Mary J. Blige “Mudbound,” Allison Janney “I, Tonya,” Lesley Manville “Phantom Thread,” Laurie Metcalf “Lady Bird,” Octavia Spencer “The Shape of Water”) Blige is celebrating her first nomination. Spencer has won before, so she is out. Not much buzz on Manville. It is between the 2 seasoned actresses playing mothers— Metcalf and Janney. Janney has the smaller part, and it is a bit cartoony. So I am giving the advantage to Metcalf. Final pick: Laurie Metcalf
Best Director (Christopher Nolan “Dunkirk,” Jordan Peele “Get Out,” Greta Gerwig “Lady Bird,” Paul Thomas Anderson “Phantom Thread,” Guillermo del Toro “The Shape of Water”) Paul Thomas Anderson is the only previous nominee for best director — but it is not his year. Cases could be made for actors turned directors Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig. But I think it is going to be Del Toro for guiding “The Shape of Water.” Final choice: Guillermo del Toro
Best Picture (Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri ) The best picture winner always has some best actor nominees. For that reason, it is easy to drop “Dunkirk.” But then you start counting how many great acting roles in a movie, and after you do that it comes down to 2 movies both of which have at least 5 good roles: “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Yes, Three Billboards is more of the moment — with its frustrations and injustices. It is an angry movie for sure. But there is a backlash building against it. Del Toro gave us as interspecies romance-thriller, and give voice to those that don’t have any. It is a beautifully filmed modern fairy tale. I am picking “The Shape of Water” to win the night. Final choice: The Shape of Water
Those are my picks. If you think differently, then please sound off in the comments. And if you win big in an Oscar pool, please let me know too.
KiltManinSoCal is a Los Angeles-based writer and designer. Be sure to check out the latest T-Shirts for sale here, including Marriage Equality and Real Men Wear Kilts lines. They make great gifts for friends, family and loved ones.